| Research ID | NGTA-RP-IDX-NIFTY-20250819 |
On 19 August 2025, a NexGen Trading Academy instructional session analysed NIFTY through a multi-degree Fibonacci structure. The preserved chart displayed NIFTY at 24,990.25, a 50% confirmation reference at 25,003.45, a smaller 161.8% projection near 25,053-25,060, and a higher 61.8% level at 25,160.60. The broader structural thesis projected an eventual move to 27,000.
NIFTY reached 25,088.70 on 20 August. This crossed the 25,003.45 reference and exceeded the first target zone. On the Thursday expiry of 21 August, the cash index reached 25,153.65—only 6.95 points, or approximately 0.028%, below 25,160.60. The immediate sequence is therefore classified as a confirmed first target and a near-confirmed higher cash-index target.
The evidence boundary is central to a professional audit. The preserved screenshot displays 19 August 2025 at 13:22 IST, with NIFTY at 24,990.25—consistent with that trading session. This strongly supports a private classroom recording. The public YouTube upload, however, was made on 22 August, after the immediate expiry outcome. Price-path alignment is credited, but public ex-ante provenance remains qualified.
From the 24,990.25 session reference, 27,000 required an 8.04% rise. NIFTY later reached an official intraday high of 26,373.20 on 5 January 2026. That move completed 68.81% of the required path but remained 626.80 points below the objective. A Reuters poll published on 20 August 2025 placed the median end-2025 NIFTY forecast at 25,834; the 27,000 thesis was about 4.51% above that median near-term benchmark. This is context, not a claim of originality.
The index subsequently corrected to 22,182.55 on 2 April 2026. At the fixed 31 July 2026 evidence cut-off, the official NIFTY close was 24,383.60—2,616.40 points, or 9.69%, below 27,000. Because the original statement gave no deadline or invalidation rule, the long target is classified as open and unfulfilled rather than time-scored as failed.
The preserved analysis documents Fibonacci retracement and projection levels, A-minor/C wave labels, and confirmation logic. The exact anchor pairs and a unique Elliott or NeoWave count cannot be independently reconstructed from the surviving still image. Gann, Hurst, astronomical, Kondratiev, RSI, MACD and OBV methods are not attributed to this forecast score.
Controlled verdict
25,003.45 confirmation trigger: confirmed at daily OHLC resolution.
First target near 25,053-25,060: confirmed.
25,160.60 higher target: near-confirmed; 6.95-point cash-index shortfall.
Public pre-event provenance for the immediate move: qualified.
27,000 objective: unfulfilled and open at the evidence cut-off.
Trading profit: not scoreable without a defined contract, entry, stop, hedge ratio and exit.
Sources
Primary video: NIFTY Analysis for Expiry Special - Targets Achieved
Official OHLC archive: NSE Historical Index Data
Official record reference: NSE Facts and Figures - NIFTY 50
Publication-day context: Reuters - 19 August 2025 market preview
20 August close: Reuters - NIFTY closes at 25,050.55
21 August close: Reuters - NIFTY closes at 25,083.75
Contemporaneous poll: Reuters - 20 August 2025 market poll
January peak context: Reuters - NIFTY record high on 5 January 2026
Expiry rule: NSE circular FAOP68747
Futures cross-check: ICICI Direct - NIFTY August futures, 21 August 2025
Disclaimer
This publication is for education and research only. It is not investment advice, a trading recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market forecasts are probabilistic and can fail.